I went 5-1 in my predictions last week. I only mispredicted my own matchup, typical. So, remember, you should always take this post seriously.
Interestingly, every team that won last week is playing a team that lost last week. It’s the winners vs the losers. There’s a chance we’re all 1-1 at the end of this week, a slim chance. I promise Jason and I will do our part to make it happen though!
While looking at the standings this week, I noticed it appears the first tie breaker is division rankings, before points. Is this the way it’s been in the past? Is that what we want? Does anyone have a problem switching to points?
Premier Matchup: 1 Show Your Horns vs 7 In the Pits
This matchup involves two of the more successful QBs last week. Drew Brees and Philip Rivers were top-5 QBs last week. They could be again this week. I have Rivers facing Buffalo, and the Bills made Joe Flacco look like Johnny Unitas last week. Brees faces the Browns, though the Browns have a good secondary and Myles Garrett is no joke. We’re even at QB factoring matchups.
Yahoo projects my running backs to outscore his, but I’m less optimistic. Both Barkley and Hyde played well last week, each scoring more than my pair. I also like their matchups better. David Johnson, as will always be the case, is the x-factor. He only received fourteen touches last Sunday, and is now dealing with a minor back injury. Collins barely touched the ball following his TD on the first drive. He didn’t produce on the few carries he was given, and it didn’t help that his best run (a 12 yarder) was called back. He has a tough matchup against the Bengals. I’m considering making a switch at RB, but I’m not thrilled by my options this week.
I do have an advantage at WR and TE. Mike Evans looked as though he’d recaptured his WR1 form, and Desean Jackson looks injured, which should give Evans more looks. Hilton was adequate last week, and I believe he’s still on the rise with Luck getting back into the swing of things. I’m benching Amari Cooper this week, and turning to Mike Williams, who is getting targeted by Rivers, and faces the Bills. He’s their redzone target anyways. Ertz led the Eagles in targets, hopefully there’s more production to come. Golden Tate was the only positive wide receiver for Jason, though Kyle Rudolph also scored. Larry Fitzgerald, and more importantly, his QB Sam Bradford, face the Rams this weekend. Edge my way.
Kickers and defense seem a wash.
This is a tight one. I’m not feeling confident in my RBs right now. So, I’ll give it to Jason.
5 St. Louis Cardinals vs 9 Zach Attack
Alex Smith and Kirk Cousins scored the same number of points last week: 23. I think Alex Smith has the better matchup for Andy, facing the Colts. Cousins is in Green Bay, and Green Bay’s secondary looks much improved though they’re far from an elite unit. I’d still call their QBs even.
Zach has the advantage at RB. Melvin Gordon scored a solid 14 last week, and gets Buffalo this week. His second RB, Dalvin Cook, struggled last week though, and Green Bay was pretty good at shutting down the Bears’ Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen last week. Andy may be without Devonta Freeman this week. If Freeman misses, he’ll have to turn to rookie, Kerryon Johnson, who was worthless, along with most of the Lions, last week. Jay Ajayi had a good week by virtue of his TD. He will still have to share snaps with Clement and Sproles.
This matchup features three of the five best wide receivers in football. OBJ is the best this week against the Cowoys. DeAndre Hopkins and Adam Thielen are also WR2 or better receivers. Andy has Julio Jones, but Corey Davis and Cooks are definitely a tier or two below Zach’s second and third receivers. Andy’s tight end is also worse. Advantage goes to Zach.
I like Zach’s kicker and defense better this week.
They’re even at QB and Zach has it everywhere else. I have Zach winning and moving them both to 1-1.
6 Newby vs 10 McNabbers
This matchup features two of the better rushing QBs in the league, Cam Newton and Russell Wilson. Wilson had a good week 1 performance, 25 points, and he faces the Bears who were torched by Aaron Rodgers in the second half of their week 1 meeting with the Packers. It does look like Wilson has lost another weapon in WR1, Doug Baldwin. Newton was more pedestrian for David H, scoring 19 points. I would have considered the Falcons a more difficult matchup, but the Falcons’ secondary is hurt, and I think they’ll be missing two starters. I’m leaning David’s way in this one, David Beehner that is.
PD has the better RBs, though neither Hunt or Howard, had a fantastic opening week. Lesean McCoy was not effective at all, along with the entire Bills offense. He has a chance to bounce back though facing the Chargers rather than the Ravens. Chris Thompson will see snaps, but I think he’s a little too receiving TD dependent in our league. Speaking of the Redskins, when will PD put his faith in AP?
The receivers are fairly even, but I’ll lean slightly to David Beehner. Michael Thomas is the only true stud in the bunch. He’s a WR1. Josh Gordon’s performance was encouraging for him as well. He has the better tight end, since PD is missing Greg Olsen. David’s Broncos receivers both benefited from Keenum’s play week 1, and they get a better matchup this week. They should be solid WR2s. Devan Funchess was not impressive week 1, but he’s still the best receiver on the Panthers.
Defense and kicker are even. PD has to like what he saw from Chicago last week.
This is a close matchup. It could go either way. David Hertweck needs Kareem Hunt (the archetype “boom-or-bust” player) to have a bounce back game. I’m going to play it sage and take Beehner.
4 Old School vs 11 Joshua Tree
With New England playing the Jaguars, Gary will turn to Deshaun Watson against the Titans. Watson had a crappy first game, but Gary’s betting he bounces back, or he believes the Tom Brady is washed up, and the Jaguars are a vastly superior team to the Patriots. Jeff kept Marcus Mariota instead of Alex Smith. Now, he’s dumped Mariota after just one game for Case Keenum. Keenum was a QB1 in our league last week, throwing for 3 TDs. He also threw three interceptions though. I think Keenum is volatile, but he doesn’t have a bad matchup this week. This is an interesting individual matchup, and could greatly influence the game. Watson has a higher upside this week, while I think Keenum’s 25 point effort a week ago is the best you’re going to get from him. I’d lean Watson’s way, but either could struggle, and Watson isn’t a sure-thing to be a worthy starter.
Jeff has the best RB in this matchup, James Conner, and he may have the best two if Leonard Fournette proves to be healthy. Fournette missed time in last week’s game with a hamstring injury, and it remains to be seen if he’ll play this week. He’s a fringe RB1 if he does. Gary’s weakness is still at RB. Lamar Miller still can’t find the endzone, and Royce Freeman finds himself in more of a timeshare than I’d anticipated. Advantage Jeff.
Gary has the better receivers and it’s not close. JuJu, Tyreek Hill, and Kenny Stills are all capable of big performances. Jeff may have the better tight end, Kittle, and Diggs is a real WR2 though. Jeff’s final two positions will be taken by players he added this week, Ted Ginn and Chris Godwin. Those are good pickups. Gary has an advantage if his guys show up, but as I’ve said all along, they’re as likely to bust as boom.
Gary has the better kicker and defense.
This is an extremely close matchup, and it may be determined by Fournette’s availability. I think Jeff made some wise moves at receiver and defense this week. I’m still going to lean Gary’s way though, since I trust his QB more.
3 Fantasy Failures vs 12 Syracuse Lake Effect
Aaron grabbed Patrick Mahomes, while other more established QBs were still on the board in the draft. Mahomes rewarded him with the third best QB performance, 36 points, of week 1. The Steelers let Tyrod Taylor score 26 points last week, so I like Mahomes to be a top-half starter again. Bryon will once again give the ball to Jared Goff. Goff gave an average, 21 point, performance last week. I think we’ll see consistency from Goff this year, regular 19-24 point performances, but I don’t think he’s going to often light it up. I’d say Mahomes is a top-half QB1, while Goff is a back-end QB1.
Aaron has better running backs and it’s not close. Both of Aaron’s running backs are top-3 this week. Alvin Kamara is coming off an extraordinary game, and faces the Browns who were just torched by James Conner. Bryon is still without Le’Veon Bell, and it’s not looking good. Joe Mixon could be a back-end RB1, but he has a tough test against the Ravens. Austin Ekeler is a starter in PPR leagues, but his production in our league is dependent upon a receiving touchdown. Aaron has a big advantage here. Standard Donald Trump rhetoric wouldn’t be an exaggeration to the describe the advantage Aaron has at running back.
Aaron also has an advantage at receiver, but it’s closer. Bryon at least has the best receiver in the matchup, Antonio Brown. However, Keenan Allen and AJ Green aren’t far behind. Aaron also has the superior TE, Gronk, though Kelce is just behind with Gronk facing the Jaguars. Bryon has a second solid receiver in Jarvis Landry, but Sammy Watkins may be in trouble. Patrick Mahomes threw 4 TD passes last week, and none of them were to him.
Bryon’s defense, Chargers, scored -3 last week, but they face the Bills this week, so maybe it’s worth Bryon giving them a second chance. Kickers and defense are even.
Bryon may be in some trouble as Bell’s absence continues. Aaron wins again.
2 Redeemed Renegades vs 8 The C’s
Tony was bailed out by Aaron Rodgers’ second half last week. As he and the Packers leaned on the discount double check return to lead them to victory. Rodgers is questionable, but I don’t think there’s any way he isn’t playing. That said, it’s going to be a tough test against the Vikings. Jared has hopefully learned his lesson. He should be starting Andrew Luck after Matthew Stafford was embarrassed by the Jets last week. He scored 22 points last week, and has an easier matchup against the Redskins (as opposed to the Bengals secondary). It’s hard to pick against Rodgers, but with the matchup and the injury, I think he’s even with Luck this week.
Tony has the two best RBs in this matchup. Ezekiel Elliott leads the way, and he’s a top-5 RB this week against the Giants. McCaffery has a good matchup, and is always a threat to break off a big play. Jared’s best RB is Lynch. Lynch scored last week, but wasn’t particularly effective on the ground apart from that play. He has a tough matchup Monday night. Jared will also start Bilal Powell again. Powell received 12 carries last week, and average 5 yards per carry. Unfortunately for him, teammate Isaiah Crowell was a beast.
On the bright side, Jared’s three starting receivers: Kenny Golladay, Michael Crabtree and Randall Cobb, all played well week 1. Unfortunately they have tougher matchups this week. Tony’s receivers were pretty good as well last week. Davante Adams is still the receiver to own in Green Bay, Allen Robinson looked decent with Chicago, and Tyler Lockett will be replacing Doug Baldwin as Russell Wilson’s go-to guy. Tony has the better TE, Jimmy Graham. I think Tony only has a slight edge here.
Tony definitely has the better kicker and defense. However, Jacksonville has to face New England, which could tick Tony’s defense down. Jared’s defense, Houston, plays Tennessee, and there’s question marks around the Titans’ QB.
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